Effects of a coup attempt on public attitudes under autocracy: quasi-experimental evidence from Russia

Abstract

ABSTRACT Elite schisms are known to destabilize autocracies, but there is little scholarship that examines how such splits affect regime support or perceptions of regime stability. We utilize a unique survey that was in the field during a June 2023 coup attempt in Russia to examine this question. By comparing the responses of respondents interviewed before the coup with those interviewed after the coup, we estimate the effect of the coup on a number of attitudes. We find that the coup had no effect on regime support and only a limited (negative) effect on perceptions of regime stability. By contrast, we find that the coup caused a precipitous drop in support for the coup’s leader and that this effect is larger among those who watch state television. The findings suggest that the regime used its control of the information space to swiftly demonize the coup leader and avoid public fallout.