Abstract
BackgroundInfluenza is a seasonal infectious disease, and meteorological parameters critically influence the incidence of influenza. However, the meteorological parameters linked to influenza occurrence in semi-arid areas are not studied in detail. This study aimed to clarify the impact of meteorological parameters on influenza incidence during 2010–2019 in Lanzhou. The results are expected to facilitate the optimization of influenza-related public health policies by the local healthcare departments.MethodsDescriptive data related to influenza incidence and meteorology during 2010–2019 in Lanzhou were analyzed. The exposure-response relationship between the risk of influenza occurrence and meteorological parameters was explored according to the distributed lag no-linear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution. The response surface model and stratified model were used to estimate the interactive effect between relative humidity (RH) and other meteorological parameters on influenza incidence.ResultsA total of 6701 cases of influenza were reported during 2010–2019. DLNM results showed that the risk of influenza would gradually increase as the weekly mean average ambient temperature (AT), RH, and absolute humidity (AH) decrease at lag 3 weeks when they were lower than 12.16°C, 51.38%, and 5.24 g/m3, respectively. The low Tem (at 5th percentile, P5) had the greatest effect on influenza incidence; the greatest estimated relative risk (RR) was 4.54 (95%CI: 3.19–6.46) at cumulative lag 2 weeks. The largest estimates of RRs for low RH (P5) and AH (P5) were 4.81 (95%CI: 3.82–6.05) and 4.17 (95%CI: 3.30–5.28) at cumulative lag 3 weeks, respectively. An increase in AT by 1°C led to an estimates of percent change (95%CI) of 3.12% (−4.75% to −1.46%) decrease in the weekly influenza case counts in a low RH environment. In addition, RH showed significant interaction with AT and AP on influenza incidence but not with wind speed.ConclusionThis study indicated that low AT, low humidity (RH and AH), and high air pressure (AP) increased the risk of influenza. Moreover, the interactive effect of low RH with low AT and high AP can aggravate the incidence of influenza.
Highlights
Influenza is an acute respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus, which belongs to category C infectious diseases in China
All meteorological parameters including ambient temperature (AT), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), absolute humidity (AH), and Sunshine hours (SH) were negatively correlated with influenza incidence (P < 0.05), while air pressure (AP) was positively correlated with influenza incidence
The risk of influenza gradually increased as the AT, RH, and AH decreased, when they were lower than 12.16◦C, 51.38%, and 5.24 g/m3, respectively
Summary
Influenza is an acute respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus, which belongs to category C infectious diseases in China. China has established an influenza surveillance network, the latest research suggests that an average of 88,100 people die each year due to influenza-related respiratory diseases across the country [4, 5]. The influence of meteorological parameters on the spread and incidence of influenza has become more critical. Seasonal changes in the incidence of respiratory diseases especially influenza reveal that the peak time of their occurrence is during winter and spring [6,7,8,9]. A study suggested that low humidity contributed to the spread of influenza in Shenyang, China [12]. Influenza is a seasonal infectious disease, and meteorological parameters critically influence the incidence of influenza. This study aimed to clarify the impact of meteorological parameters on influenza incidence during 2010–2019 in Lanzhou. The results are expected to facilitate the optimization of influenza-related public health policies by the local healthcare departments
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