Effectiveness Of Time Series Models In Predicting The Rate Of Electrical Energy Supplying The City Of Dohuk

Abstract

This paper deal with using time series models to study and analysis the monthly data on a rate of Electrical Power in Dohuk city for the period (2000-2013), estimating models,and The last twelve, which represents 2014 for the purposes of comparison with the predictions obtained. The results of application show that the proper and efficiency model for representing time series data are the multiplicative seasonal model of order : ARMA(2,1)×SARMA(0,1)12 . According to estimation results of this model done forecasting to monthly rate of electrics capacity for year ahead from the period Jan. 2014 to Dec. 2014, these values show a harmonic direction with the same original time series. I've used Minitab and SPSS programs in the statistical aspect.