Abstract
OBJECTIVESStarting in March 2020, movement control measures were instituted across several phases in Malaysia to break the chain of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the effects of the various phases of movement control measures on disease transmissibility and the trend of cases during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.METHODSThree SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from October 14, 2020, to March 29, 2021, based on 3 phases of movement control measures.RESULTSWe found that the reproduction rate (R-value) of COVID-19 decreased by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases were much lower than the forecasted cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases (by 64.4-98.9% and 68.8-99.8%, respectively).CONCLUSIONSThe movement control measures progressively reduced the R-value during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective for further lowering the R-value and case numbers during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia due to their higher stringency than the nationwide RMCO.
Highlights
Since the World Health Organization (WHO) announced COVID-19 a pandemic on 11March 2020, there has been more than 170 million confirmed cases and 3.5 million deaths reported globally as of up to May 2021(1)
We found that the movement control measures were able to progressively reduce the COVID-19 case numbers and disease transmissibility during the third wave from 1 September 2020 to 29 March 2021
Studies done in Germany, Spain, Japan, and China found that, premature easing of movement control measures lead to increase in population mobility and physical interaction which in turn increased the risk of disease transmission, resulting in resurgence of cases [13,20,38,39,40,41,42]
Summary
March 2020, there has been more than 170 million confirmed cases and 3.5 million deaths reported globally as of up to May 2021(1). Outbreak in Malaysia which included various phases and degrees of movement restrictions such as the Movement Control Order (MCO), Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) and Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO). These measures varied in stringency levels with the MCO being the most stringent followed by CMCO and RMCO [5,6]. The MCO was implemented on 18 March 2020 and subsequently adjusted by changing stringency levels based on the COVID-
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