Abstract
Recent rates of deforestation on private lands in Australia rival deforestation hotspots around the world, despite conservation policies in place to avert deforestation. This study uses causal impact estimation techniques to determine if a controversial conservation policy—the Vegetation Management Act (VMA)—has successfully reduced deforestation of remnant trees in the Brigalow Belt South, a 21.6 Mha biodiversity hotspot in Queensland. We use covariate matching to determine the regulatory effect of the policy on deforestation rates over time, compared to two counterfactual scenarios representing upper and lower estimates of policy impact. The VMA significantly reduced the rate of remnant deforestation in the highest impact scenario, saving 17, 729 ± 1733 ha during 2000–2016. In the lowest scenario, ‘panic clearing’ before and after enactment of the VMA minimized the amount of remnant forests saved and may have marginally increased deforestation relative to the counterfactual (−404 ± 617 ha). At peak effectiveness, the VMA successfully counteracted the amount of remnant deforestation during 2010–2012, but this only represents 4.78% of the 371, 252 ha of remnant forests cleared in the bioregion since enactment in 1999. Thus, while deforestation rates in the region have substantially reduced since the policy was enacted, our results of positive yet limited direct regulatory impact suggests the policy’s effectiveness is strongly confounded by other deforestation drivers, like changing socio-economic or climate conditions, as well as new social signals provoked by the policy. The mechanisms through which the policy influences deforestation behavior must be further investigated to ensure real, desirable change is achieved.
Highlights
Policy evaluation is critical for adaptive management and political development, as it can illuminate the successes of policy instruments and identify areas requiring improvement (Bovens et al 2006, Pawson 2006)
Effectiveness of the Vegetation Management Act (VMA) Under the ‘pre-emptive clearing (PC)’ scenario, remnant deforestation rates relative to matched non-remnant deforestation rates have significantly reduced for most years following the enactment of the VMA, with the lowest rate occurring in 2016 at −1.21% ± 0.14% (ATTPC ± 95% CI), indicating a shift in preference toward non-remnant deforestation (figure 2(a))
Since 2012, against the backdrop of rising deforestation rates in both remnant and non-remnant vegetation, the VMA has increased in effectiveness relative to the counterfactual, with non-remnant areas experiencing a greater increase in deforestation rates relative to remnants
Summary
Policy evaluation is critical for adaptive management and political development, as it can illuminate the successes of policy instruments and identify areas requiring improvement (Bovens et al 2006, Pawson 2006). The few studies aimed at estimating impacts of deforestation policies over more variable landscapes, including those largely under private management, show more variable and contrasting results (e.g. AlixGarcia et al 2015, Sills et al 2015, Bos et al 2017). Conservation regulations reduced deforestation by nearly 50% in the Amazon (Assunção et al 2012), but increased pre-emptive habitat destruction resulting from species’ listings under the US Endangered Species Act, contrasting with evidence based upon naïve impact indicators (Ferraro et al 2007). Amidst increasing competition for land and resources around the world, it is critical that the causal impact of conservation policies is robustly evaluated to justify the many direct and indirect costs associated with these interventions and to ensure desirable change is being created for biodiversity conservation and sustainability
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