Effectiveness of Incumbent’s Strategic Communication during Economic Crisis under Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence from Turkey

Selim Erdem Aytaç

doi:10.1017/s0003055421000587

Abstract

To minimize damage to their popularity during economic downturns, rulers in electoral autocracies can draw on their propaganda advantage to keep the economy off the political agenda or shift the blame to other actors. How successful are these strategies in swaying citizens’ views? While electoral autocrats frequently resort to these strategies, there is surprisingly little evidence about their effectiveness. To address this gap, I took advantage of the recent economic crisis in Turkey and deployed a population-based survey experiment that mimicked incumbent’s use of these strategies. I find that incumbent’s efforts of shifting the blame fail to elicit intended effects among large parts of the electorate. In contrast, changing the political agenda away from the economy to an issue area that is more favorable for the incumbent is more effective for shoring up popular support. These findings contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms that help sustain electoral authoritarianism.

Highlights

Responsibility for worsening economy by shifting blame
This study provides experimental evidence on how voters receive electoral autocrats’ efforts to minimize damage from economic downturns, and sheds light on the extent to which poor economic performance may threaten the stability of these regimes
My findings have important implications about the dynamics of accountability in electoral autocracies and beyond. They challenge the notion that electoral autocrats can evade responsibility for bad outcomes thanks to their media hegemony

Summary

Introduction

Responsibility for worsening economy by shifting blame. Because these rulers control key media outlets, they can make sure that their messages reach large parts of society unchallenged. The effectiveness of electoral autocrats’ efforts of changing the political agenda or shifting the blame is an open question.

Results

Conclusion