Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Over Time Against Clinical and Radiologic Outcomes Related to Severe SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Abstract

Background The impact of waning vaccine effectiveness on the severity of COVID-19-related findings discovered with radiologic examinations remains underexplored. Purpose To evaluate the effectiveness of vaccines over time against severe clinical and radiologic outcomes related to SARS-CoV-2 infections. Materials and Methods This multicenter retrospective study included patients in the Korean Imaging Cohort of COVID-19 database who were hospitalized for COVID-19 between June 2021 and December 2022. Patients who had received at least one dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine were categorized based on the time elapsed between diagnosis and their last vaccination. Adjusted multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against a composite of severe clinical outcomes (invasive ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or in-hospital death) and severe radiologic pneumonia (≥25% of lung involvement), and odds ratios (ORs) were compared between patients vaccinated within 90 days of diagnosis and those vaccinated more than 90 days before diagnosis. Results Of 4196 patients with COVID-19 (mean age, 66 years ± 17 [SD]; 2132 [51%] women, 2064 [49%] men), the ratio of severe pneumonia since their most recent vaccination was as follows: 90 days or less, 18% (277 of 1527); between 91 and 120 days, 22% (172 of 783); between 121 and 180 days, 27% (274 of 1032); between 181 and 240 days, 32% (159 of 496); and more than 240 days, 31% (110 of 358). Patients vaccinated more than 240 days before diagnosis showed increased odds of severe clinical outcomes compared with patients vaccinated within 90 days (OR = 1.94 [95% CI: 1.16, 3.24]; P = .01). Similarly, patients vaccinated more than 240 days before diagnosis showed increased odds of severe pneumonia on chest radiographs compared with patients vaccinated within 90 days (OR = 1.65 [95% CI: 1.13, 2.40]; P = .009). No difference in odds of severe clinical outcomes (P = .13 to P = .68) or severe pneumonia (P = .15 to P = .86) were observed between patients vaccinated 91-240 days before diagnosis and those vaccinated within 90 days of diagnosis. Conclusion Vaccine effectiveness against severe clinical outcomes and severe pneumonia related to SARS-CoV-2 infection gradually declined, with increased odds of both observed in patients vaccinated more than 240 days before diagnosis. © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Wells in this issue.