Effectiveness of bilateral and multilateral concessional debts on economic growth in Africa

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess the relative effectiveness of bilateral and multilateral concessional debts on economic growth in 32 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1985–2016.Design/methodology/approachThe recently developed dynamic panel autoregressive distributed lag models which comprise three different estimators, the mean group, pooled mean group (PMG) estimator and dynamic fixed effect, were applied to estimate the model. Following these estimators, the Hausman test was employed to determine the efficient and consistent estimator.FindingsThe results showed that bilateral concessional debts had a negative impact on growth. From the findings, a 1 percent increase in bilateral concessional debts induced economic growth to decline by 38.1 percent points in the short run, and by 7.1 percent points in the long run; convergence to long-run equilibrium adjusted at the speed of 90 percent on an annual basis. Multilateral concessional debts were found to have a positive impact on growth both in the short and long run. The coefficient of the error term was negatively signed and indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium path were being corrected at the speed of 89.4 percent annually.Originality/valueTo the authors’ best knowledge, empirical studies that specifically seek to examine how bilateral and multilateral concessional debts impacted on growth are yet to attract the attention of researchers. As a result, this study will complement related extant growth studies, especially in the case of SSA.