Effectiveness Evaluation of Low-dose Spiral Computed Tomography for Lung Cancer Screening in Minhang District of Shanghai

Abstract

Low-dose spiral computed tomography (LDCT) has been recommended for lung cancer screening in high-risk populations. However, evidence from Chinese populations was limited due to the different criteria for high-risk populations and the short-term follow-up period. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness in Chinese adults based on the Lung Cancer Screening Program in Minhang District of Shanghai initiated in 2013. A total of 26,124 subjects aged 40 years or above were enrolled in the Lung Cancer Screening Program during the period of 2013 and 2017. Results of LDCT examination, and screen-detected cancer cases in all participants were obtained from the Reporting System of the Lung Cancer Screening Program. The newly-diagnosed cases and their vital status up to December 31, 2020 were identified through a record linkage with the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Shanghai Vital Statistics. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 95%CI were calculated using the local population at ages of 40 or above as the reference. Proportions of early-stage cancer (stage 0-I), pathological types, and 5-year observed survival rates of lung cancer cases were estimated and compared between the cases derived from the screened and non-screened populations. Cox regression models were applied to evaluate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95%CI of LDCT screening with all-cause death of the lung cancer cases. The crude and age-standardized incidence of lung cancer in screened population were 373.3 (95%CI: 343.1-406.1) and 70.3 per 100,000 person-years, respectively, with an SIR of 1.8 (95%CI: 1.6-1.9), which was observed to decrease with following-up time. The early-stage cancer accounted for 49.4% of all lung cancer cases derived from the screened population, significantly higher than 38.4% in cases from the non-screened population during the same period (P<0.05). The proportion of lung adenocarcinoma (40.7% vs 35.9%) and 5-year survival rate (53.7% vs 41.5%) were also significantly higher in the cases from the screened population (all P<0.05). LDCT screening was associated with 30% (HR=0.7, 95%CI: 0.6-0.8) reduced all-cause deaths of the cases. The participants of the screening program are at high-risk of lung cancer. LDCT favors the early-detection of lung cancer and improves 5-year survival of the screened cases, indicating a great potential of LDCT in reducing the disease burden of lung cancer in Chinese populations.