Abstract

Russia is being drawn inexorably into the global economy. Therefore, its main strategic goals today are to retain and consolidate leadership in high-technology sectors. This calls for organizational and economic procedures and models that permit the development of management strategies for high-tech industries. Analysis of various scientific approaches to the development of such enterprises indicates the existence of numerous perspectives, each of which focuses on a single factor, selected from the many factors that help to determine performance. Therefore, if we could identify a fundamental factor, it would be possible to concentrate efforts on effective development in a consistent manner. The most likely unifying factor is innovation. In a market economy, there is a pressing need for well-founded social and economic prediction of the output of innovative products, taking account of the variation in relevant factors and conditions. Such prediction is based on indeterminate factors and hence may be characterized by some probabilistic estimate of labor productivity in the future, based on certain hypotheses regarding economic development. The prediction of innovative-product output may be divided into several stages. 1. Analysis of output dynamics and variation in the product range.

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