Effective capacity-building for spatial analyses: Risk mapping for emerging infectious diseases in Indonesia

Abstract

Event Abstract Back to Event Effective capacity-building for spatial analyses: Risk mapping for emerging infectious diseases in Indonesia Caitlin N. Pfeiffer1*, Mark A. Stevenson1, Farida Zenal2 and Luuk Schoonman2 1 Asia Pacific Centre for Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Melbourne, Australia 2 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Indonesia), Indonesia Emerging infectious diseases are an important threat to human and animal health worldwide, and many of these diseases are zoonoses. To understand the likelihood of disease emergence, spatial analyses are extremely valuable to facilitate targeting surveillance and risk mitigation activities to high-risk geographic areas. However, collecting and collating relevant existing data to facilitate spatial analyses can be challenging. Furthermore, relevant expertise in the spatial analytical methods may not be present in the countries at greatest risk for infectious disease emergence. Indonesia is known to be at increased risk for emerging vector-borne diseases and spill-over of diseases from wildlife into human populations1. The aim of this analytical and capacity-building project was to better understand the spatial variation in emerging infectious disease risk across the country, through upskilling of in-country staff to identify, gain access to, manage and analyse relevant existing data. Relevant spatial risk data included human demographic and health information, animal population distribution and health status, historical disease outbreak locations, and known disease drivers such as environmental data including temperature, rainfall, elevation, land use change over time and greenness indices. The project will produce risk maps that can be used to effectively communicate disease emergence risk with decision-makers, to facilitate policy decisions that can safeguard human, animal and environmental health. To facilitate the in-country analysis and interpretation of the data, a series of capacity building training activities were conducted in 2019. Five workshops were delivered in Indonesia to a team of trainees comprised of Government of Indonesia employees, academics from Indonesian universities and FAO Indonesia staff. The training courses focussed on the development of technical skills, providing practical exposure to analysis of spatial data, use of advanced software including R and WinBUGS, and the principles of risk mapping. Crucially, the delivery of this material as a series of workshops staggered over a three-month period allowed participants to build their skills and confidence in the relevant techniques over time. An important feature of this capacity-building activity was engagement of staff from multiple ministries of the Government of Indonesia (a One Health approach). This provided several important benefits, including insights about the nature and quality of existing data and knowledge of local factors that could potentially influence the spread of emerging infectious diseases. Additionally, the continued attendance of the same group of trainees facilitated the development of collaborative working relationships between staff from different Government of Indonesia ministries, providing a rich foundation for future collaborative and One Health work. Relevant local examples were used throughout the training activities which enhanced the trainees’ engagement with the technically challenging content. Evaluation at the end of each workshop indicated progressive skill development and increasing theoretical understanding throughout the series of courses. This series of workshops serves as a model for empowering more countries to deliver technically advanced analyses, to better protect human and animal health. The One Health approach was very beneficial for these spatial analyses. Expertise from a variety of disciplines contributed to a thorough understanding of each dataset and facilitated the selection of appropriate techniques. As sophisticated spatial analyses become increasingly feasible (through the collection and availability of data and increasing availability of software), it is important to consider how capacity to perform these analyses can be fostered in countries with previously limited technical expertise. Expert input is needed to determine which analytical techniques might provide answers to important research and policy questions. Expertise in training and adult education is also needed, to support technical staff in developing the knowledge and skills needed to competently perform the analyses. Substantial focus on the policy relevance, effective visualisation and communication of analyses, rather than just their technical features, will be required. The delivery of effective capacity-building activities, such as the example described in this work, will help ensure spatial analyses can be meaningfully implemented in the parts of our world where they are most needed. Acknowledgements This project is part of the Emerging Pandemic Threats Phase 2 (EPT-2) programme, funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). We thank FAO Indonesia for their support of the program and all of the participating trainees for their dedication to the workshop material.