Effect of weather variables on the incidence of trauma: A retrospective study at a single tertiary hospital center for 4 years.

Abstract

The occurrence of trauma is associated with various factors, including weather. We aimed to elucidate the relationship between local weather factors and the incidence of trauma to effectively manage and treat patients in a community setting. A retrospective study was conducted at a single center from January 2016 to December 2019. The study participants were trauma patients in the Cheongju area where the regional trauma center is located. Weather data including average daily temperature (°C), rainfall duration (hours), amount of rainfall (mm), average relative humidity (%), wind speed (m/s), and total sunlight hours per day were collected. One-way analysis of variance, correlation analysis, and linear regression analysis were performed. The average age of the participants (n = 3352) was 52.69 years. As regards seasonal difference in the incidence of trauma, there were more patients in spring than in winter (2.42/day vs 2.06/day, P = .05). The highest number of average daily trauma incidents occurred from April to June, and the difference between this value and that from January to February was significant (F = 2.20, P = .01). According to the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLnM), the relative risk is greater than 1 when the mean temperature is high (>15°C) compared to when the temperature is low (<15°C). The trauma patient prevalence was the highest at high wind speed (4.5 m/s). When the total amount of sunlight was long (>Ref. 8 hours), the trauma patient prevalence was relatively higher than the median value (lag = 0). DLnM analysis results showed that the relative risk of trauma patients increased as the amount of precipitation increased, and the incidence of trauma increased when the relative humidity was 40% to 50%. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that high average daily temperatures and long average daily total sunlight hours resulted in an increased incidence of trauma (F = 6.605, P < .001). An increase in temperature, an increase in the daily sunlight hours, an increase in rainfall, high wind speed, and relative humidity of 40% to 50% are associated with a relatively high risk of trauma.