Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Abstract

The effects of weather variability on seasonal influenza among different age groups remain unclear. The comparative study aims to explore the differences in the associations between weather variability and seasonal influenza, and growth rates of seasonal influenza epidemics among different age groups in Queensland, Australia. Three Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive models were fitted at the postal area level to quantify the relationships between seasonal influenza and monthly minimum temperature (MIT), monthly vapor pressure, school calendar pattern, and Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage for 3 age groups (<15, 15-64, and ≥65 years). The results showed that the expected decrease in monthly influenza cases was 19.3% (95% credible interval [CI], 14.7%-23.4%), 16.3% (95% CI, 13.6%-19.0%), and 8.5% (95% CI, 1.5%-15.0%) for a 1°C increase in monthly MIT at <15, 15-64, and ≥65 years of age, respectively, while the average increase in the monthly influenza cases was 14.6% (95% CI, 9.0%-21.0%), 12.1% (95% CI, 8.8%-16.1%), and 9.2% (95% CI, 1.4%-16.9%) for a 1-hPa increase in vapor pressure. Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission in younger (0-14) age groups. The growth rates of influenza at postal area level were relatively small for older (≥65) age groups in Queensland, Australia.