Abstract

BACKGROUND Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is endemic in the state of Paraná, Brazil.OBJECTIVE This study aimed at analysing the influence of the remaining native vegetation on the prevalence of CL in Paraná.METHODS Global testing was used for spatial autocorrelation along with simultaneous autoregressive model (SAR). The regression was based on the CL coefficient (cases/100,000 inhabitants) as a function of the percentage of natural vegetation cover, altitude, total number of cases, and spatial density (SD) per km2; the location data of the Paraná state municipalities and the detection coefficient (DC) (cases/100,000 inhabitants) of autochthonous cases of CL were obtained from the SINAN in 2012 and 2016. Data on the remaining forests were collected from the Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica and Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.FINDINGS The spatial regression of DC revealed statistical significance for SD (Z = 24.1359, p < 0.05, 2012-2013; Z = 24.0817, p < 0.05, 2013-2014; Z = 33.4824, p < 0.05, 2014-2015; and Z = 27.1515, p < 0.05, 2015-2016.CONCLUSIONS CL cases are reported in areas with native vegetation, such as in riparian forests. However, vegetation is not the only variable that influences the incidence of CL.

Highlights

  • Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is endemic in the state of Paraná, Brazil

  • We focused on municipalities with spatial density (SD) values ≥ 0.010, which were considered as highrisk areas for disease transmission

  • 30.13% of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) cases were reported in these municipalities in 2012 and 2016

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Summary

METHODS

Global testing was used for spatial autocorrelation along with simultaneous autoregressive model (SAR). The prevalence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is reported in 97 countries, including America and those in Europe, Africa, and Asia, with 0.7-1.3 million new cases registered annually (WHO 2017). This disease is one of the six most severe infectious diseases worldwide due to its high detection coefficient (DC) and capability to cause deformations in patients (MS 2016). The present study aimed at evaluating the association between CL and residual native vegetation, which is considered a risk factor for the prevalence of the disease, in the state of Paraná. Statistical analysis using georeferencing was carried out to assess this association

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