Abstract
A pavement mechanistic-empirical analysis is based on a pre-designed structure checked for required performance criteria. In case the latter are not met, this structure is modified and reprocessed. In this context, analyzing the effect of variations in project parameters on pavement performance prediction subsidizes a better understanding of results provided by computer programs. The objective of this study is to assess the effect of layer thickness and resilience modulus variations on flexible pavement performance. To do so, performance was estimated for the 20th project year through Elastic Layered System Model 5 (ELSYM5) software and American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Mechanistic-Empirical method (ME). Using multiple regression models for result adjustment and through statistical assessments on regression coefficients calculated, it can be concluded that pavement lifespan consumption, predicted by simulations on ELSYM5, is sensitive to variations in coating and subbase thickness and in subgrade resilience modulus. For AASHTO ME method, predicted values for distresses were significantly sensitive to variations in coating, base and subbase thickness, and in base and subgrade resilience modulus. Comparing both approaches, it is concluded that ELSYM5 can be a viable alternative to the application of a ME pavement design method.
Highlights
Pavement design based on mechanistic-empirical methods are becoming increasingly promising for being currently described as the approach that is more in line with the reality of the field
After definition of analysis general conditions used, the experimental procedure was divided into three stages: the first one consisted of analyzing pavement structures on Elastic Layered System Model 5 (ELSYM5) program, which was chosen for the research for being public domain and providing a simplified pavement structure analysis; the second stage referred to analyses by Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) ME method, using Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) software and AASHTOWare® Pavement Design; the last stage consisted of analyzing performance prediction sensitivity according to input parameters for each of the programs used
Comparisons between distress values estimated by MEPDG software and by AASHTOWare® Pavement Design and values predicted by adjusted regression models are exposed in Figures 2 and 3, respectively
Summary
Pavement design based on mechanistic-empirical methods are becoming increasingly promising for being currently described as the approach that is more in line with the reality of the field. Pavement analysis by this method relies on a predesigned structure for which structural responses are determined and damages accumulated throughout the project lifespan are calculated. Results obtained allow verifying compliance with project criteria from the initial structure In case these criteria are not met, variations are applied to this structure, and the method is repeated until the condition established is reached. Studies carried out in order to observe such behaviors are known as sensitivity analysis
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