Abstract
Urban floods have adverse effects on the population and the economy, and they are increasing in frequency and magnitude. The State of Veracruz is the region of Mexico with the highest number of disasters, more than 50% of the total number nationwide, in the 1970–2015 period. During the 1990s, disasters in this region increased from 5 to 10 events per year, mostly in relation to intense rains and floods. This study analyzes the factors that increase the risk of urban floods in the regions: (i) the Pánuco River, (ii) the Papaloapan River, and (iii) the Coatzacoalcos River regions, combining hazard data and estimates of vulnerability factors. The 95th percentile of daily precipitation (P95) is used as a threshold of heavy rain, i.e., the natural hazard. Vulnerability is estimated in terms of the percentage of natural vegetation loss due to changes in land cover and land use in the hydrological basins and the expansion of the urban areas in the regions under study. The risk of flood was compared with records of flood events focusing on the low-frequency variations of risks and disaster activity. The trends in urban flood activity are related to the loss of natural vegetation and deterioration of the basins leading to a loss of infiltration, i.e., larger runoffs. Even when the intensity of precipitation in recent decades remains without clear trends, or shows negative tendencies in the number of intense events, the number of floods is higher mostly because of the deterioration of hydrologic basins. Therefore, the risk of flooding in the state of Veracruz is mainly related to environmental factors that result in vulnerability rather than changes in the trends of extreme precipitation activity. This result means that disaster risk reduction actions should be mainly related to rehabilitation of the basins.
Highlights
During the 1990–2020 period, more than 50% of the disasters registered worldwide were related to floods [1,2,3,4,5]
Urban floods are one of the most important hydrometeorological risks faced by urban areas [6,7,8,9] and their impacts affect a large percentage of the population and the economic activities given the tendency for people to live in cities [10,11,12,13,14]
The number of floods in Veracruz has had a positive trend since the 1970s, which appears to be related to the land use changes, and increased exposition due to urban growth
Summary
During the 1990–2020 period, more than 50% of the disasters registered worldwide were related to floods [1,2,3,4,5]. Urban floods are one of the most important hydrometeorological risks faced by urban areas [6,7,8,9] and their impacts affect a large percentage of the population and the economic activities given the tendency for people to live in cities [10,11,12,13,14]. Concentrating only on the effect of the meteorological hazards [11,22,23] would reduce the problem to a “naturalistic” focus on natural disasters. It is clear that negative impacts of hazardous meteorological events should be examined as a risk problem, in which vulnerability plays a key role. Urban floods are an example of how the development scheme of some of large cities
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