Effect of travel restrictions, contact tracing and vaccination on control of emerging infectious diseases: transmission of COVID-19 as a case study.

Abstract

Patch models can better reflect the impact of spatial heterogeneity and population mobility on disease transmission. While, there is relatively little work on using patch models to study the role of travel restrictions, contact tracing and vaccination in COVID-19 epidemic. In this paper, based on COVID-19 epidemic propagation and diffusion mechanism, we establish a dynamic model of disease spread among two patches in which Wuhan is regarded as one patch and the rest of Mainland China (outside Wuhan) as the other patch. The existence of the final size is proved theoretically and some model parameters are estimated by using the reported confirmed cases. The results show that travel restrictions greatly reduce the number of confirmed cases in Mainland China, and the earlier enforced, the fewer confirmed cases. However, it is impossible to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control and lift travel restrictions on April 8, 2020 by imposing travel restrictions alone, the same is true for contact tracing. While, the disease can always be controlled if the protection rate of herd immunity is high enough and the corresponding critical threshold is given. Therefore, in order to quickly control the spread of the emerging infectious disease (such as COVID-19), it is necessary to combine a variety of control measures and develop vaccines and therapeutic drugs as soon as possible.