Abstract
The substantial growth of motorcycle users in Indonesia is hypothesized to be influenced by a government policy on motorcycle purchase waivers and the massive growth of online motorcycle taxis. This study aims to analyse the relationship between the emergence of online motorcycle taxis and government policy changes towards the number of motorcycles and compare the estimation model seen from the consumer and sales sides. The data were collected from the Indonesian Bureau of Statistics, Motorcycle Industry Association, and World Bank. Several estimation models were built using the interrupted time series method. The results showed that changes in government policy and income per capita significantly increased the number of motorcycles. However, the emergence of online motorcycle taxis negatively affected the increasing number of motorcycles. The results also showed that models with data representing motorcycle usage behavior provided better results than the model with motorcycle sales.
Highlights
In Indonesia, motorcycles are one of the most popular vehicles with the public
Due to the rapid use of online motorcycle taxis and increase in the number of drivers, this research investigated how ride-sharing services influenced the number of motorcycles
The study found that an increase in the number of motorcycles in Indonesia was significantly influenced by changes in government policy
Summary
In Indonesia, motorcycles are one of the most popular vehicles with the public. Motorcycles have advantages, such as high mobility and affordable prices [1]. Motorcycles with a relatively small size can be used on narrow roads and facilitate outreach to remote areas. Along with economic development and population growth, the number of cars and motorcycles in developing countries has increased rapidly [2]. Prior studies have found that personal specific variables (i.e., age, income, and occupation) influence motorcycle ownership, and in emerging countries, the motorcycle is associated with income and population [3]. Previous studies showed the significant influence of income on private vehicle ownership [4,5]
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