Effect of the exchange rate change on the purchasing power of the consumer of agri –food by using (ARDL) model

Abstract

In this paper, we studied of the impact of the exchange rate change on the (CPI) of Agri-food during the period (January 2019 - December 2021), to determine the extent of the exchange rate used as a tool for economic policy in Egypt, and to identify the extent to which the actual reality matches the economic theory that emphasizes that the high price of The exchange leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of money and then to the consumer. Statistical tests have been conducted to ensure the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the changes that occur in the exchange rate on the (CPI) of Agri-food , using the Autoregressive Distributed lagged (ARDL) methodology, where it was found an inverse relationship Between the exchange rate and the (CPI) of Agri-food , a relationship that is consistent with the economic logic , there was an equilibrium relationship in the long run between the exchange rate and the purchasing power of the consumer of Agri-food represented in the (CPI) of Agri-food, as its estimated morale has been proven.