Effect of Term Limits on the Election of Minority State Legislators

Abstract

of minority candidates. Those who support term limits vigorously contend that restricting legislators' tenure in office creates new oppor? tunities for minorities (Jacobs 1991), whereas opponents assert that term limits erode the potential for minority advancement (Bositis 1992). However, these conflicting views have been based primarily on conjecture because of a lack of reliable empirical data on limit? ing tenure and electoral outcomes (Mondak 1995), even though limitations on tenure in state legislatures began after the 1990 elec? tion. An extensive body of empirically vali? dated data necessary for in-depth analysis has been slow to develop because the effect of legislative term limits in most states has yet to be fully manifested and recorded (Carey, Niemi, and Powell 2000). Since the 2000 election, however, credible empirical data on the influence of term limits on the electoral