Effect of targeted dropsonde observations and best track data on the track forecasts of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) using an ensemble Kalman filter

Abstract

During August and September 2008, The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) – Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) was conducted to investigate the formation, structure, targeted observation, extratropical transition (ET) and downstream effects of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) region. This study investigates the effect of targeted dropsonde observations from T-PARC and the TC best track data on the track forecast of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008). A WRF-based ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used for a series of observation system experiments (OSEs). From the innovation statistics and rank histograms, the EnKF behaves well in terms of ensemble spread, despite some spread deficiency in low-tropospheric winds and warm and moist biases. Assimilation of targeted dropsonde observations leads to improved initial position and subsequent track forecast compared with experiments that only assimilate conventional observations. In the meantime, assimilation of TC position reduces the initial position error, whereas assimilation of minimum sea level pressure (SLP) information is efficient to analyse the strong vortex structures of TC and reduces track forecast errors. Assimilation of TC position and minimum SLP information is particularly beneficial when dropsonde observations do not exist.