Abstract
The reliability indices evaluated for a composite generation and transmission system can be very sensitive to the variation in annual peak load level. This paper examines this aspect in detail with reference to both the bus and system reliability indices. The accurate forecast of system peak load is a very difficult task due to the various factors involved. The uncertainty associated with the forecasted peak load is considered in this paper in terms of its effect on bus and system reliability indices. The results of a study on a 30-bus model of the Saskatchewan Power Corporation system are used for illustrating the effects of these two factors.
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