Effect of Socioeconomic Factors on Mass Shooting Events: A 5-Year Analysis

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Gun violence is a major public health problem in the US. Mass shooting events (MSE), defined as 4 or more shot and/or killed in a single event, have major effects on public opinion and policy surrounding guns. Previously, we determined that states with higher gun law grades did not have lower MSE incidence. How socioeconomic factors are associated with MSE incidence is not understood. The primary aim of this study was to identify county-level socioeconomic risk factors that are associated with MSE. METHODS: MSE data were obtained from the Gun Violence Archive for the years 2015 to 2019. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the 2019 US Census American Community Survey 5-year estimate data profiles. Socioeconomic factors for counties with and without MSE were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test and logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 1,816 MSE occurred in 473 of 3,142 (15.1%) US counties in the years examined. There were 9,806 MSE victims, of whom 2,097 (21.4%) were fatally injured and 7,709 (78.6%) were nonfatally injured. The number of MSEs and fatally or nonfatally injured victims was highest in Cook County, IL. GINI index, educational attainment, and families with children were associated with MSE on multivariate analyses. Lower median income itself was not associated with an increased incidence of MSE (Table). Table 1. - Univariate and Multivariate Analysis of Relevant Socioeconomic Factors Characteristic No Mass Shooting Events Mass Shooting Events Odds Ratio (Univariate) Odds Ratio (Multivariate) GINI index 44.2 (3.6) 46.4 (3.3) 1.18 (1.14–1.21, p < 0.001) 1.11 (1.07–1.16, p < 0.001) Households with children 27.8 (4.2) 30.0 (3.3) 1.13 (1.10–1.16, p < 0.001) 1.09 (1.05–1.12, p < 0.001) Households where grandparents raise children 47.6 (18.3) 40.4 (12.3) 0.98 (0.97–0.98, p < 0.001) 0.99 (0.98–1.00, p = 0.015) Bachelor’s degree 13.7 (5.4) 16.9 (6.2) 1.09 (1.08–1.11, p < 0.001) 1.09 (1.06–1.12, p < 0.001) US citizenship 95.9 (4.8) 91.2 (8.3) 0.90 (0.89–0.91, p < 0.001) 0.93 (0.91–0.95, p < 0.001) Unemployment rate 5.2 (2.7) 6.0 (2.0) 1.11 (1.07–1.14, p < 0.001) 1.04 (0.99–1.11, p = 0.142) Below poverty level 10.7 (5.5) 11.8 (5.1) 1.04 (1.02–1.05, p < 0.001) 0.97 (0.93–1.01, p = 0.113) African American 7.1 (12.9) 20.4 (17.9) 1.05 (1.04–1.05, p < 0.001) 1.05 (1.04–1.06, p < 0.001) CONCLUSION: MSE occur in counties with identifiable socioeconomic risk factors. Interventions addressing various socioeconomic factors, especially income inequality, may decrease the incidence of MSE.