Abstract
China currently has the world’s most skewed national sex ratio at birth. In this paper, we use data from China’s 2001 National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey and employ hierarchical logistic models to study how macro factors (mainly fertility policy and economic indicators, as represented by per capita GDP of the village units sampled in this research) and micro factors (mainly fertility intention and sex composition of children) affect the gender of the next birth. We find that the effect of fertility policies is intertwined with the sex composition of children already born. For those couples who have had a son (or sons), fertility policy exerts no effect; but for those with only daughters, the effect is significant. Furthermore, fertility intention, independent from fertility policy, has a significant effect on the gender of the next birth.
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