Effect of Saharan dust episodes on the accuracy of photovoltaic energy production forecast in Hungary (Central Europe)

Abstract

In order to meet global sustainability goals, in particular, the rapid decarbonisation of the energy sector in combination with geopolitical energy security issues, as well as further improvement in regional air quality-the so-called renewable energy sources are becoming increasingly critical and important. Photovoltaic power (PV) generation is clearly the most widely deployed (non-hydro) renewable energy source globally, which still has a significant growth potential in many countries, including Hungary.However, due to the intermittent nature and the strong dependency of photovoltaic power production on meteorological factors, continuous adjustment of electric power in the electric grid is needed. This, in turn, requires the most accurate forecast of the photovoltaic energy to be produced in the ultra-short term (15 min) and short term (1 day) in order to minimise last-minute and high-price energy acquisition or unplanned kicks-in of gas-fired auxiliary power plants.In this paper, we evaluate the impacts of large-scale dust transport episodes on the accuracy of forecasts of PV power generation. The numbers and intensities of Saharan dust storm events reaching Central Europe have increased over the last decade, hitting a new record in 2022 with 16 (!) African dust episodes observed over Hungary. We have shown that the semi-direct effect of atmospheric dust particles on high-level cloud formation rather than their direct irradiance-reducing effect is responsible for the reduced accuracies of e short-term (24-h) PV energy production forecasts during these events.