Effect of precautionary and normalization steps on course of COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey

Abstract

Aim: The COVID-19 pandemic began in China and has now spread across the whole world, and many countries such as Turkey are still fighting against this pandemic. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of precautionary and normalization steps taken by the Turkish government on the number of confirmed cases, current cases, and deaths due to the COVID-19 in Turkey. Materials and Methods: The study used exponential regression models to estimate the number of confirmed cases, deaths, and current cases. The study data were collected from the Turkish Ministry of Health, Turkish Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the national public broadcaster of Turkey. Results: The precautions taken during the COVID-19 pandemic have caused the exponentially increasing number of cases to be brought under control and to decrease exponentially. The normalization steps taken paused the exponential decrease in the number of cases and caused the number of cases to remain flat during the summer months and then rise again. If the normalization steps were not implemented and the precautions taken continued in the same way, it was calculated that the numbers of COVID-19 current cases would be reset on June 26, 2020. The total number of deaths would remain at 4423 and the total number of confirmed cases would be 150586. Discussion: As a result, the impact of precautionary and normalization steps on the course of the COVID-19 pandemic was examined. It has been observed that the impact of these steps on the pandemic is exponential. The results provide guidelines for health authorities and administrators to take necessary precautions.