Abstract
Background Particulate pollution, especially PM2.5from biomass burning, affects public and human health in northern Thailand during the dry season. Therefore, PM2.5exposure increases non-communicable disease incidence and mortality. This study examined the relationship between PM2.5and NCD mortality, including heart disease, hypertension, chronic lung disease, stroke, and diabetes, in northern Thailand during 2017–2021. Methods The analysis utilized accurate PM2.5data from the MERRA2 reanalysis, along with ground-based PM2.5measurements from the Pollution Control Department and mortality data from the Division of Non-Communicable Disease, Thailand. The cross-correlation and spearman coefficient were utilized for the time-lag, and direction of the relationship between PM2.5and mortality from NCDs, respectively. The Hazard Quotient (HQ) was used to quantify the health risk of PM2.5to people in northern Thailand. Results High PM2.5 risk was observed in March, with peak PM2.5concentration reaching 100 µg/m3, with maximum HQ values of 1.78 ± 0.13 to 4.25 ± 0.35 and 1.45 ± 0.11 to 3.46 ± 0.29 for males and females, respectively. Hypertension significantly correlated with PM2.5levels, followed by chronic lung disease and diabetes. The cross-correlation analysis showed a strong relationship between hypertansion mortality and PM2.5at a two-year time lag in Chiang Mai (0.73) (CI [−0.43–0.98], p-value of 0.0270) and a modest relationship with chronic lung disease at Lampang (0.33) (a four-year time lag). The results from spearman correlation analysis showed that PM2.5concentrations were associated with diabetes mortality in Chiang Mai, with a coefficient of 0.9 (CI [0.09–0.99], p-value of 0.03704). Lampang and Phayao had significant associations between PM2.5 and heart disease, with coefficients of 0.97 (CI [0.66–0.99], p-value of 0.0048) and 0.90 (CI [0.09–0.99], p-value of 0.0374), respectively, whereas Phrae had a high coefficient of 0.99 on stroke.
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