Effect of Non-homogeneous Mixing and Asymptomatic Individuals on Final Epidemic Size and Basic Reproduction Number in a Meta-Population Model.

Abstract

To uncover the effective interventions during the pandemic period, a novel mathematical model, which incorporates separate compartments for incubation and asymptomatic individuals, has been developed in this paper. On the basis of a general mixing, final size relation and next-generation matrix are derived for a meta-population model by introducing the matrix blocking. The final size ({mathcal {F}}) and the basic reproduction number ({mathcal {R}}_{0}) are no longer a simple monotonous relationship. The analytical results of heterogeneity illustrate that activity is more sensitive than the others. And the proportion of asymptomatic individuals is a key factor for final epidemic size compared to the regulatory factor. Furthermore, the impact of preferential contact level on {mathcal {F}} and {mathcal {R}}_{0} is comparatively complex. The isolation can effectively reduce the final size, which further verifies its effectiveness. When vaccination is considered, the mixing methods maybe influence the doses of vaccination used and its effective. Moreover, using the present predictive model, we can provide the valuable reference about identifying the ideal strategies to curb the pandemic disease.