Effect of meteorological factors and Air Quality Index on the COVID-19 epidemiological characteristics: an ecological study among 210 countries.

Mohebat Vali,Jafar Hassanzadeh,Fabiola Méndez-Arriaga,Samaneh Dehghani,Mohammad Hoseini,Zahra Maleki,Haleh Ghaem,Alireza Mirahmadizadeh

doi:10.1007/s11356-021-14322-6

Abstract

The survival of COVID-19 in different environments may be affected by a variety of weather, pollution, and seasonal parameters. Therefore, the present study aims to conduct an ecological investigation on COVID-19 average growth rate of daily cases and deaths influenced by environmental factors (temperature, humidity, and air pollution) using a sample size of adjusted cumulative incidence of daily cases and deaths based on five 60-day periods. Research data was gathered on official websites, including information on COVID-19, meteorological data, and air pollution indicators from December 31, 2019, to October 12, 2020, from 210 countries. Spearman correlation and generalized additive model (GAM) were used to analyze the data. During the observed period, the COVID-19 average growth rate of daily cases (r = −0.08, P =0.151) and deaths (r= −0.09, P = 0.207) were not correlated with humidity. Also, there was a negative relationship between the COVID-19 average growth rate of new cases and deaths with the Air Quality Index (AQI) and wind (new cases and wind: r=−0.25, P= 0.04). Furthermore, the data related to the first and second 60 day of the adjusted cumulative incidence of COVID-19 daily cases and deaths were not associated with humidity and Air Quality Index (AQI). The result of GAM showed the effect of AQI on the average growth rate of COVID-19 new cases and deaths. This study provides evidence for a positive relationship between COVID-19 daily cases, deaths, and AQI.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-14322-6.

Highlights

Over the last two decades, the spread of viral epidemics has severely threatened the health of humans and societies
We developed a generalized additive model to investigate the relationship of meteorological factors and air pollution indicators with COVID-19 average growth rate of daily cases and deaths as well as the cumulative incidence rate of daily COVID-19 cases and deaths based on the population size of 210 countries spread over five consecutive 60-day intervals from December 31, 2019, to October 12, 2020
Our results revealed that there was a negative, nonsignificant correlation between humidity and COVID-19 average growth rate of daily cases and deaths, but based on the population size of countries, daily COVID-19 cases and deaths from the first to the third 60-day interval did not correlate with meteorological measurements and air pollution indicators but with PM10

Summary

Introduction

Over the last two decades, the spread of viral epidemics has severely threatened the health of humans and societies. The current prevalence of COVID-19 has led the World Health Organization (WHO) to announce the disease as a global epidemic. One way of spreading respiratory diseases is through airborne dust. Microorganisms in the air or dust appear to be associated with infectious diseases (Yu et al 2004). Inhalation of small virus particles can carry the virus to deeper areas of the alveoli and chips that, in turn, increases the risk of infection spread. The spread of the COVID-19 virus in the long term is due to the spread of this virus through airborne dust (Qu et al 2020). Simultaneous inhalation of chemical contaminants through the COVID-19 virus may exacerbate the level of infection (Yousefi et al 2021; Qu et al 2020; Yu et al 2004)

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Conclusion