Abstract
Off-grid systems based on PV and batteries are becoming a solution of great interest for rural electrification. Nevertheless, sizing these systems is not straightforward since it means matching unpredictable energy sources with uncertain demands while providing the best reliability and costs. In our opinion, the effect of users’ energy consumptions uncertainty on the sizing of these systems has not been appropriately investigated. This paper addresses this issue and analyzes the effect of load profile uncertainty on the off-grid PV systems optimum design. Specifically a novel sizing methodology has been introduced based on: (i) an effective approach of modelling rural energy needs; (ii) an innovative stochastic method which formulates different possible realistic daily load profiles for un-electrified rural areas; (iii) a PV-battery techno-economic analysis via steady-state simulation; (iv) the evaluation of the optimum system sizing via a numerical method based on net present cost and loss of load probability. Finally, the proposed methodology has been applied to find the optimum size of an off-grid PV system for a peri-urban area of Uganda. The results show that the optimum system configurations are significantly affected by load profiles; consequently an approach to identify the robust solution with regards the assumed uncertainty is proposed.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
