Effect of different cold air intensities and their lagged effects on outpatient visits for respiratory illnesses in Handan in different seasons

Abstract

The authors analyzed cold air processes of different intensities and their effect on the number of patients with respiratory illnesses visiting a hospital outpatient department in Handan City in different seasons from 2016 to 2019. For cold air events of the same intensity (apart from cold waves), the number of patients with respiratory illnesses visiting the outpatient department was highest in winter. During the cold waves, the number of patients increased sharply to greater than 55 patients per day, and the number of patients was higher in spring than in autumn. The probability density of the number of patients with respiratory illnesses visiting the outpatient department gradually changed to a positive skewness as the cold air intensity increased. Although the incidence of respiratory illnesses was the highest in winter and lowest in summer, the impact of cold air on respiratory illnesses was the largest in summer and spring, when the number of people with respiratory illnesses visiting the outpatient department increased by 18.4% and 13.3% two and five days after a cold air day. By contrast, the number people visiting the outpatient department with respiratory illnesses in winter only increased by 3.2% three days after a cold air day. The lag time of the health impact decreased with increasing cold air intensity in summer, autumn and winter, whereas the lag time was always long in spring. These findings provide a targeted basis for a scientific response to the risks to human health caused by global climate change.摘要本文利用2016年到2019年邯郸市气象要素和呼吸系统疾病门诊数据, 分析了不同季节不同强度的冷空气过程及其对呼吸系统疾病的影响. 结果显示: 尽管呼吸系统疾病在冬季高发, 夏季最低, 但冷空气对呼吸系统疾病的影响在夏, 春季最大, 就诊人数分别在冷空气日后两天和五天增加18.4%和13.3%, 而冬季就诊人数在冷空气日后三天仅增加3.2%.冷空气对疾病影响的滞后时间在夏, 秋和冬季随冷空气强度的增加而减少, 而春季的滞后时间总是很长. 这些发现可为科学应对气候异常导致的人群健康风险提供针对性依据.