Abstract
We consider an expression for the probability R=P(Y<X) where the random variables X and Y denote strength and stress, respectively. Our aim is to study the effect of the dependency between X and Y on R. We assume that X and Y follow exponential distributions and their dependency is modeled by a copula with the dependency parameter theta. We obtain a closed-form expression for R for Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM), Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Gumbel's bivariate exponential copulas and compute R for Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula using a Monte-Carlo integration technique. We plot a graph of R versus theta to study the effect of dependency on R. We estimate R by plugging in the estimates of the marginal parameters and theta in its expression. The estimates of the marginal parameters are based on the marginal likelihood. The estimates of theta are obtained from two different methods; one is based on the conditional likelihood and the other on the method of moments using Blomqvist's beta. Asymptotic distribution of both the estimators of R is obtained. For illustration purpose, we apply our results to a real data set.
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