Effect of Decadal Changes in Freshwater Flows and Temperature on the Larvae of two Forage Fish Species in Coastal Nurseries of the St. Lawrence Estuary

Abstract

Since 2002, the abundance of larvae of rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) has been monitored in July in coastal nurseries (Anse Ste.-Anne (ASA) and Banc de Riviere-du-Loup (BRL)) in the Middle St. Lawrence Estuary (MSLE), Canada. The two species are spatiotemporally segregated, with smelt larvae being more abundant at the upstream, less saline site (ASA) and having an earlier hatching date. Despite these differences, the abundances of both species from 2002 to 2013 were strongly and positively related to the early spring flow of tributaries at the time of larval smelt emergence and weakly and negatively related to sea-surface temperatures in the nurseries. Larval herring abundance was weakly associated with the upstream bottom residual transport flow of the MSLE’s estuarine circulation in June, at the time of their emergence. Larval herring lengths in BRL were positively related to the sum of degree days (SDD) from hatching to sampling, with the greatest length but lowest condition in 2012. The relationship between body lengths of ASA smelt larvae and SDD was dome-shaped, suggesting lower growth than expected in the warmest years, 2006 and 2012. The highest larval abundances were observed in 2008 and 2011, both years with late tributary freshets, high tributary flows in the early spring and moderately warm summer temperatures. In contrast, low abundances occurred in 2006 and 2012, which were years with low spring tributary flows and high summer temperatures. These results suggest that the dynamics of local tributary freshets is a key driver of larval recruitment success for two key forage species in coastal nurseries until summer and support the use of fish larvae as indicators of environmental changes in the MSLE.