Effect of Coefficient of Variation on the Reliability of Collapse Potential's Equation Predicted by ANNs

Abstract

In this paper, the Reliability Analysis with utilizing a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) process was conducted on the equation of the collapse potential predicted by ANN to study its reliability when utilized in a situation of soil that has uncertainty in its properties. The prediction equation utilized in this study was developed previously by the authors. The probabilities of failure were then plotted against a range of uncertainties expressed in terms of coefficient of variation. As a result of reliability analysis, it was found that the collapse potential equation showed a high degree of reliability in case of uncertainty in gypseous sandy soil properties within the specified coefficient of variation (COV) for each property. When the COV ranges (0-100) for each soil properties under study, it was found also that the collapse potential equation is very well in predicting the collapse potential of gypseous sandy soils for all values of the COV lies between (0-100) % for initial water content and degree of saturation, and for values of the COV not exceed 11%, 19% for the initial dry unit weight and specific gravity respectively, as well as for the values of the COV not exceed 80%, 97% for the initial voids ratio and gypsum content respectively.