Effect of climatic oscillations on small pelagic fisheries and its economic profit in the Gulf of Cadiz

Jairo Castro-Gutiérrez,José Carlos Báez,Ivone Alejandra Czerwinski,Remedios Cabrera-Castro

doi:10.1007/s00484-021-02223-9

Abstract

Several studies have shown the effect of climatic oscillations on fisheries. Small pelagic fish are of special global economic importance and very sensitive to fluctuations in the physical environment in which they live. The main goal of this study was to explore the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the landings and first sale prices of the most representative small pelagic commercial species of the purse-seine fisheries in the Gulf of Cadiz (North East Atlantic), the European anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and the European sardine Sardine pilchardus. Generalised linear models (GLMs) with different data transformations and distribution errors were generated to analyse these relationships. The best results of the models were obtained by applying a moving average of order 3 to the dataset with a double weighted median. Our results demonstrate relationships between NAO, AO, and EA and European anchovy and sardine landings. These cause an indirect effect on the first sale price in markets through catch variations, which affect the price according to the law of supply and demand. The limitations of this study and management implications are discussed.

Highlights

The effect of climatic variability of large-scale climatic phenomena on small pelagic fisheries is a well-described fact in scientific literature (for example Chávez et al 2003; AlheitAccording to Barnston and Livezey (1987) and Wang et al (2005), the three most important interannual sources of climatic variability patterns in the Northern Hemisphere that affect the Atlantic Ocean are North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic pattern (EA), and Arctic Oscillation (AO).The NAO is defined by the redistribution of atmospheric masses between the subtropical high surface1 3 Vol.:(0123456789)International Journal of Biometeorology pressure centre located near the Azores (Azores High) and the centre of low surface pressures near Iceland (Icelandic Low) (Hurrell and Deser 2009; Báez et al 2021)
A positive EA phase is associated with an increase in the mean rainfall in northern Europe and Scandinavia and a decrease in rainfall in southern Europe and is associated with an increase in temperatures in the north of the Iberian Peninsula (Sáenz et al 2001) and vice versa (Rodríguez-Puebla et al 1998, 2001)
In the case of European anchovy landings, we found that negative values of the EA variable 3 years prior to the landings would positively affect the response variable, and vice versa

Summary

Introduction

The effect of climatic variability of large-scale climatic phenomena on small pelagic fisheries is a well-described fact in scientific literature (for example Chávez et al 2003; AlheitAccording to Barnston and Livezey (1987) and Wang et al (2005), the three most important interannual sources of climatic variability patterns in the Northern Hemisphere that affect the Atlantic Ocean are North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic pattern (EA), and Arctic Oscillation (AO).The NAO is defined by the redistribution of atmospheric masses between the subtropical high surface1 3 Vol.:(0123456789)International Journal of Biometeorology pressure centre located near the Azores (Azores High) and the centre of low surface pressures near Iceland (Icelandic Low) (Hurrell and Deser 2009; Báez et al 2021). The NAO is defined by the redistribution of atmospheric masses between the subtropical high surface. When the pressures of the subtropical high and the polar low intensify, the NAO is in its positive phase. This event increases the number and intensity of the disturbances that cross the Atlantic towards north-western Europe, leading to hot and wet winters in north-western Europe, whilst decreasing rainfall in winter in the Iberian Peninsula. Sánchez et al (2007) showed how on a regional scale in the Gulf of Cadiz, the positive and negative phases of the NAO are associated with upwellings and downwellings, which in turn are related to temperature variations. The NAO shows both intra- and inter-annual variation (Hurrell 1995)

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