Effect of climate variability on crop income and indigenous adaptation strategies of households

Arega Shumetie,Molla Alemayehu Yismaw

doi:10.1108/ijccsm-04-2016-0039

Abstract

PurposeThis study aims to examine the effect of climate variability on smallholders’ crop income and the determinants of indigenous adaptation strategies in three districts (Mieso, Goba-koricha and Doba) of West Hararghe Zone of Ethiopia. These three districts are located in high-moisture-stress areas because of crop season rainfall variability.Design/methodology/approachPrimary data collected from 400 sample households were used for identifying factors that affect households’ crop income. The study used ordinary least square (OLS) regression to examine the effect of climate variability. Given this, binary logit model was used to assess smallholders’ adaptation behavior. Finally, the study used multinomial logistic regression to identify determinants of smallholders’ indigenous adaptation strategies.FindingsThe OLS regression result shows that variability in rainfall during the cropping season has a significant and negative effect, and cropland and livestock level have a positive effect on farmers’ crop income. The multinomial logistic regression result reveals that households adopt hybrid crops (maize and sorghum) and dry-sowing adaptation strategies if there is shortage during the cropping season. Variability in rainfall at the time of sowing and the growing are main factors in the area’s crop production. Cropland increment has positive and significant effect on employing each adaptation strategy. The probability of adopting techniques such as water harvesting, hybrid seeds and dry sowing significantly reduces if a household has a large livestock.Originality/valueThe three districts are remote and accessibility is difficult without due support from institutions. Thus, this study was conducted on the basis of the primary data collected by the researchers after securing grant from Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA).

Highlights

Climate change and variability are becoming a strong threat for food security in the twenty-first century, for the agriculture-dependent sub-Saharan African countries (Eva, 2009)
This study addressed the responsiveness of households for climate variability by implementing the multinomial logistic regression model
This study identified that smallholders adopt few strategies like water harvesting, using hybrid and drought-resistant crops, sowing short-seasoned crops and sowing on the dry soil to reduce the effect of climate variability

Summary

Introduction

Climate change and variability are becoming a strong threat for food security in the twenty-first century, for the agriculture-dependent sub-Saharan African countries (Eva, 2009). Global warming is projected to have a significant impact on factors affecting agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide emission and precipitation. Identifying the agricultural effect of climate change might help to properly anticipate and adapt to the problem and maximize smallholders’ productivity (Fraser, 2008). Because most African countries lack the capacity of adapting to this problem, minor changes can spark a significant effect on the agriculture capability of the nations. While climate change has global impacts on agriculture, regional variations are significant depending on the geographic location. Precipitation variation affects moisture availability that may result in a reduction in agricultural production and shortages in potentially widespread food supply (Michael, 2006)

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