Abstract
Phlebotomus papatasi sand fly is the main vector of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) in Iraq. The aim of this study was to assess and predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of the cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) cases and the main vector presently and in the future. Data of the CL cases were collected for the period (2000-2018) in addition to sand fly (SF) abundance. Geographic information system, R studio and MaxEnt (Maximum entropy niche model) software were used for analysis and predict effect of (elevation, population, Bio1-19, and Bio28-35) on CL cases distribution and SF occurrence. HadGEM2-ES model with two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for future projections 2050. The results showed that the CL case trend was increased over the period (2000-2018) with highest peak observed in 2017. Incidence rate for same period was varied and increased. Near perfect crimination (SF as vector) led to high predictive performance of the model in 2050. The study concluded that the climate conditions are the major determinants of ZCL distribution and SF occurrence. Habitats suitability for the ZCL and SF will be stay in the future comparing with the current conditions. Evaluation of the effect of environmental conditions and bioclimatic factors on ZCL distribution and SF occurrence may provide a guide for CL prevention and control programmers.
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