Abstract
The aim of this study was to assess soil erosion changes in the mountainous catchment of the Portaikos torrent (Central Greece) under climate change. To this end, precipitation and temperature data were derived from a high-resolution (25 × 25 km) RegCM3 regional climate model for the baseline period 1974–2000 and future period 2074–2100. Additionally, three GIS layers were generated regarding land cover, geology, and slopes in the study area, whereas erosion state was recognized after field observations. Subsequently, the erosion potential model (EPM) was applied to quantify the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on soil erosion. The results showed a decrease (−21.2%) in annual precipitation (mm) and increase (+3.6 °C) in mean annual temperature until the end of the 21st century, and the above changes are likely to lead to a small decrease (−4.9%) in soil erosion potential.
Highlights
Climatologists highlight that climate change is occurring, both in terms of air temperature and precipitation patterns
It was found that the model overestimated mean monthly temperatures for almost all months, except for September and October
According to studies which compared the results of the erosion potential model (EPM) model with actual measurements, it was found that the model overestimated soil loss by 10% [32,33,34,35,36]
Summary
Climatologists highlight that climate change is occurring, both in terms of air temperature and precipitation patterns. Assessment Report, the Mediterranean basin is expected to become warmer and dryer due to an anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, and F-gases) until the end of the 21st century [1]. In Mediterranean regions, future warming will probably be larger than the global mean, accompanied by a considerable decrease of total rainfall amount [2,3] and more frequent high-intensity rainfall events [4,5]. Future climate projections will highly influence catchments’ responses to soil erosion [6,7,8,9]. Soil erosion by water is one of the most significant forms of land degradation, as it threatens natural ecosystems, water resources, and crop productivity.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
