Effect of climate change on Clinopodium polycephalum (Vaniot) C. Y. Wu & S. J. Hsuan distribution adopting temporal data, ArcGIS, and the MaxEnt model

Abstract

Clinopodium polycephalum (Vaniot) C. Y. Wu & S. J. Hsuan, a vital plant in traditional Chinese medicine, has been used for its hemostatic properties since 1220 AD. Despite its recognized medicinal benefits including anti-inflammatory and cardiovascular applications and increasing market demands, research on this plant remains limited, particularly from the perspective of plant ecology. Due to global warming and the resultant climate change, studies on the distribution and conservation of C. polycephalum are of great importance, especially when a clear trend that its habitat shifts to the north was observed. To predict the potential distribution of C. polycephalum under distinct climate situations, the MaxEnt model was used along with the ArcGIS software. As a result, an AUC value of 0.931 was achieved, indicating high predictive accuracy of the model. By analyzing 135 occurrence points and their corresponding bioclimatic factors (including precipitation), soil data, and other environmental variables (49 in total), 16 key factors including pH value and basic saturation were selected for downstream analysis. It was found that solar radiation in May, precipitation in May and April, and the lowest temperature in the coldest month are important factors influencing the growth and distribution of C. polycephalum. Compared to the current climate scenario, the future suitable habitat for C. polycephalum is expected to shift northwest, and under the SSP245-2061-2080 climate scenario, its highly suitable habitat area is projected to increase by 886,000 km2. These findings provide crucial insights into the environmental drivers of C. polycephalum distribution and aid in its preservation and sustainable use in traditional medicine. Based on the findings of this study, future research should focus on factors such as solar radiation in May and the lowest temperature in the coldest month within the suitable habitat to ensure its effective conservation.