Abstract
To estimate the long-term effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission on cereal yield in Sudan, we employed an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bound test for cointegration analysis. The ARDL results reveal evidence of cointegration between the dependent variable (cereals yield) and two independent variables (CO2 emission) and agricultural GDP. The estimation results of the error correction model indicate that change in CO2 has a positive and significant impact on the cereal yield in the long and short terms, as 1% increase in CO2 leads to a cereal yield increase by 3% in the short term and by 0.7% in the long term. This result adds two important findings to the existing literature: First, the positive impact of CO2 on cereal yield in Sudan supports previous research findings in other countries of warm and arid climates. Second, the effect of CO2 on cereal yield differs from short to long term, as our finding indicates that CO2 has a greater positive effect in the short term compared to that in the long term, implying that the effect of CO2 on cereal yields is not linear, as commonly perceived, but it decreases as time duration extends to longer periods. This may be due to the CO2 effect on global warming that emanates from cumulative CO2 concentration, which leaves a disproportionate impact on crops over time.
Highlights
Changes in climatic conditions have a significant impact on agricultural production and productivity in developed as well as in developing economies (Zaied, 2013)
As in developing economies, such as in Sudan, agriculture is largely affected by the climatic condition; there is a need to examine empirically the effect of climate changes on agriculture so that the right adaptation policy could be adopted to ensure food security
To assess the impact of CO2 emissions on cereal yield in Sudan in this study, we specify yield as a function of CO2 emissions and value added of the agriculture sector to GDP during the period 1961-2016
Summary
Changes in climatic conditions have a significant impact on agricultural production and productivity in developed as well as in developing economies (Zaied, 2013). the effect of climate change on agriculture productivity is becoming more important as researchers recently have indicated that crop yield and the type of crops to grow are influenced by climate change (Deryng et al, 2016; Mendelsohn et al, 1994; Fischer et al, 2001). The effect of climate change on agriculture productivity is becoming more important as researchers recently have indicated that crop yield and the type of crops to grow are influenced by climate change (Deryng et al, 2016; Mendelsohn et al, 1994; Fischer et al, 2001). The increasing role of agricultural sector in the economies of underdeveloped economies, including food security, employment opportunity, raw material provision for the industrial sector, and a source of foreign exchange via the supply of export product, makes the research on the impact of climate change on agricultural sector even more important. As in developing economies, such as in Sudan, agriculture is largely affected by the climatic condition; there is a need to examine empirically the effect of climate changes on agriculture so that the right adaptation policy could be adopted to ensure food security.
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