Effect of background noise characteristics on early warning indicators of thermoacoustic instability

Abstract

In this work, we investigate the effects of background noise characteristics — specifically noise color (or correlation time) and intensity — arising from velocity-coupled and additive noise sources, on the early warning indicators (EWIs) of thermoacoustic instability. We employ a nonlinear reduced-order combustion dynamics model for our investigation. In the absence of noise, the nonlinear model undergoes a subcritical Hopf bifurcation, and our focus lies within the linearly stable region of the system (subthreshold region). The studied class of EWIs encompasses those derived from time series (variance), spectral analysis (coherence factor), Hurst exponent, and nonlinear methods (permutation entropy). We find that when the background noise is purely multiplicative, the trends in EWIs are primarily influenced by noise characteristics rather than the control parameter. Further, the EWIs cannot be estimated at low noise levels for large correlation times. In case of purely additive noise driven system, the coherence factor and variance are reliable EWIs across all range of investigated noise characteristics. The Hurst exponent can serve as effective EWI when the system features large noise correlation times, while permutation entropy is effective only when the system features small noise correlation time, i.e., where white noise assumption is acceptable. When the background noise includes contributions from both multiplicative and additive sources, coherence factor and variance emerges as the most reliable EWIs. These results provide insights for selecting appropriate EWIs to be employed in practical systems, considering potential variations in noise characteristics with simultaneous changes in combustor operating conditions.Novelty and significanceThis study conclusively shows that background noise (multiplicative and additive) characteristics – noise correlation time (color) and intensity – can significantly change the trends in early warning indicators (EWIs) for predicting the impending thermoacoustic oscillations. In gas turbine combustors, where thermoacoustic instability poses a critical challenge, inherent noise dynamics undergo variations with changing operating conditions and combustor designs. The development of effective EWIs to foresee the onset of thermoacoustic instability is crucial for preventing potential damage and ensuring the reliable operation of combustion systems. Previous works on stochastic dynamics of combustors simplify noise with the additive white noise assumption. Thus, our results demonstrated on a nonlinear combustion dynamics model advance the state-of-the-art with respect to the early prediction and control of thermoacoustic instability. The results provide valuable insights for selecting appropriate EWIs for engine monitoring in the absence of information on noise properties and their variation with operating conditions. This practical information is of direct relevance and interest to any gas turbine manufacturer/user.