Effect of Assumptions about the Stock–Recruitment Relationship on a Lobster (Homarus gammarus) Stock Assessment

Abstract

Stock assessment of the European lobster (Homarus gammarus) has involved yield per recruit analysis based on the established length cohort methodology of Jones (1974. ICES C.M. 1974/F:33; 1981. FAO Fish. Circ. 734) which assumes that recruitment to the fishery is independent of spawning stock. The Shepherd (1982. J. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer 40: 67–75) model has been used to simulate a range of assumed stock–recruitment relationships, and the resulting sensitivity analysis describes how these affect the relation between yield or biomass and four management variables, namely fishing mortality, minimum carapace length, maximum carapace length, and the capture or noncapture of egg-bearing females. Yield curves show a clear maximum with a marked tendency to stock collapse when fishing effort is high. For the range of simulations considered, the probability of an early recruit failure is greatest for asymptotic stock–recruitment curves, which generate yield curves with maxima at an effort substantially lower than the present level. Only with a highly overcompensatory stock–recruitment curve is there a case for increasing effort to maximise yield, but such a relationship tends to reduce the benefit of increasing minimum carapace length or of setting a maximum carapace length. The model predicts that the assumption made about the stock–recruitment relationship also has a marked effect on the results expected from a ban on the landing of egg-bearing females. Overall the results confirm the unsatisfactory prognosis of the yield per recruit model and emphasise the need to gain an understanding of the biological factors determining the shape of the lobster stock–recruitment curve.