Effect of age, period of diagnosis and birth cohort on large bowel cancer incidence in a well-defined French population, 1976-1995.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to present trends in colorectal cancer incidence by sex and subsite in a well-defined French population. All of the 4486 large bowel cancer cases registered between 1976 and 1995 in the Burgundy registry of digestive tract cancers was included in this study. Time trends in colorectal cancer incidence were analysed over the 1976-95 period. The effects of age, period and cohort were evaluated using a log-linear Poisson model. The incidence rates for right colon cancer increased over time: + 21.6% (95% CI: + 13.5; + 29.7) per 5-year period in males and +10.4% (95% CI: + 3.4; + 17.3) in females. Left colon cancer rates increased in males (+ 10.6% 95% CI: + 4.6; + 16.6). Left colon cancer in females and rectal cancer incidence rates did not significantly change. Between the 1901 cohort to the 1941 cohort, estimated cumulative risks for right colon cancer increased sharply. The increase was less marked for left colon and the cumulative risk for rectal cancer remained almost stable. Temporal trends were different by subsites and sexes. In conclusion, our results confirm the existence of different trends in colorectal cancer incidence between subsites and sexes. These differences probably reflect aetiological distinctions.