Abstract
To estimate the effects of the social inclusion programme PROSPERA on food insecurity (FI) in Mexican households during 2012 and 2016. Quasi-experimental study using cross-sectional data from 2012 to 2016 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey - Socioeconomic Conditions Module (in Spanish, ENIGH-MCS). Data were used from a 2012 sample of 56888 Mexican households (representative of 31206819 households) and a 2016 sample of 70263 Mexican households (representative of 33445353 households). Severity of FI was estimated with the Mexican Food Security Scale (in Spanish, EMSA). The statistical analysis estimated a differences in differences (DD) model weighted by propensity score to compare program beneficiary and non-beneficiary households in 2012 than in 2016. We estimated the effect on households with and without children (< 18 years of age). We also compared this model to a DD model without propensity score weighting. Mexican households. FI among all beneficiary households decreased 8·0pp as compared to non-beneficiary households over the study period. In beneficiary households with children, this decrease was 6·0pp and for beneficiary households without children, this decrease was 12·9pp (for all, P-value < 0·001). The PROSPERA program had a positive effect on FI reduction at the household level through increasing food access, which usually improves nutritional outcomes in vulnerable Mexican populations.
Highlights
For households with children, estimated through the differences in differences (DD) model with propensity score weighting, we found a decrease in food insecurity (FI) severity level within 2 years of 6·0pp, while households without children showed a greater decrease of 12·9pp
We studied the effect of PROSPERA, a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program to reduce FI in Mexican households, between the years 2012 and 2016
Our results showed a decrease in FI severity in Mexican households which may be attributable to PROSPERA; this tendency was true for all households, households with children and households without children over the same time period
Summary
We performed an observational comparative study with two groups, based on secondary individual- and household-level data from the years 2012 and 2016 from a cross-sectional survey known as the National Household Income and Expenditure Survey – Socioeconomic Conditions Module (in Spanish, ENIGH-MCS). This survey is characterised by a probabilistic design allowing extrapolation to the entire Mexican population, and has been discussed in detail elsewhere[28,29]. PROSPERA beneficiary households were considered to be those which reported at least one family member receiving program benefits (as described above) within the last month; otherwise, they were classified as non-beneficiary households.
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