Effect of 7 July 2005 terrorist attacks in London on suicide in England and Wales

Abstract

A reduction in suicide in England and Wales has been reported after the attacks of 11 September 2001 in the USA. It may be plausible therefore to expect a much greater impact on suicide in the UK in response to the events of 7 July 2005, caused by the first suicide terrorist attack by Islamic extremists on British soil. To examine the effect of the 7 July 2005 terrorist attacks in London on suicide rates in England and Wales. Analysis of number of suicide (ICD-10 codes X60-X84) and undetermined injury deaths (ICD-10 codes Y10-Y34) reported in England and Wales in the 12 weeks before and after 7 July 2005. We used Shewhart Control Charts based on Poisson rates to explore adjusted daily and weekly suicide rates and rate differences with respect to 7 July 2005. A brief but significant reduction in daily suicide rate was observed a few days after the terrorist attack in London on 7 July 2005. Further reduction was also observed on the 21 July 2005, coinciding with the second wave of attacks. No similar reduction in suicide was seen during the same period in the previous 4 years. Poisson regression models with indicator variables for each day in July 2005 revealed a reduction of 40% of the expected daily rate for these 2 days only. We found no evidence of any longer-term effect on suicide. The study findings are contrary to our expectation and only weakly support Durkheim's theory that periods of national threat lower the suicide rate through the impact on social cohesion. It is possible that previous experience of IRA terrorism in the UK may have limited the effect of the 7 July 2005 attacks on suicide in England and Wales. The shock value of suicide terrorism and its psychological potency appear to diminish over time as the tactic becomes overused.