Effect analysis of air pollution control in Beijing based on an odd-and-even license plate model

Abstract

Nowadays, air pollution has become a major challenge in urban management despite rapid economic development. Meanwhile, vehicle exhaust has gradually turned into the main source of air pollution in the city. To reduce air pollution, many measures have been taken including the odd-and-even license plate rule in some cities. However, it is difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures. In view of this, based on the Davis method, this article has taken Beijing as its subject and built an odd-and-even license plate model by a probabilistic modelling method and the analysis of means, thus to quantify the pollution caused by vehicle exhaust emissions and the actual effect of the license plate limitation rule. This paper also examines the relationship between the license plate limitation rule and urban air pollution control and to see whether, or not, the rule exerts a positive influence on air pollution control. The results showed that the odd-and-even license plate rule has positive impacts on air pollution control in the short-term; however, the influence of the limitation policy gradually diminishes and disappears as the overall number of cars increases. Therefore, it is suggested to tackle air pollution in a broader and more effective way.