Efecto de los beneficios como predictores de los precios de las acciones en el largo plazo

Abstract

Although the prediction of stock prices is a topic that has been studied in several occasions, there are few variables that have been used for this matter outside of dividends such as determinant of prices (Guo, 2022). The results found to date have not been entirely satisfactory. since they do not explain most price movements in the long run. The use of profits such as predictor variable is an alternative that has not been much explored. This research work seeks to answer what is the effect of using profits as a predictor of stock prices in the long run. With the In order to answer this question, a panel regression was performed, controlling for fixed effects, of the effect of the profits on stock prices over the past 30 years for S&P 500 companies. In general, it was not possible to determine if the profits, whether gross, operating or net, have the capacity to predict changes in stock prices. However, it was established that the size of the assets of a company and changes in US GDP have a negative relationship with changes in price. By On the other hand, the change in the price of the SPX index has a positive relationship with the change in the stock price. This finding can generate a great advantage for investors when creating stock portfolios in the long term that seek to maximize profitability with a certain degree of certainty, since it would allow choosing with greater clarity those actions with greater probability of success and returns in the long