Educational-Methodical Developments Projects Management Based on Fuzzy Logic

Abstract

AbstractThe article demonstrates the importance of using risk analysis in the implementation of an educational-methodological project (EMP) and confirms the feasibility of using fuzzy logic for risk assessment. The use of fuzzy models allows to consider both quantitative and qualitative characteristics, as well as to represent fuzzy descriptions using fuzzy sets and linguistic variables.The fuzzy production model described (FPM) contains ten input linguistic variables, that characterize the risk factors, five output linguistic variables, that characterize the risks of EMP, including an integral risk indicator, that characterizes the quality level of the educational program in the as a whole and five rule bases. EMP allows to remove the restrictions on the number of input variables taken into consideration and to integrate both qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess the quality of methodological documents.The process of implementing the fuzzy modeling of the rule base of the specialized Fuzzy Logic Toolbox package of the MATLAB software is described. The mechanism for obtaining estimates based on the Mamdani algorithm allows getting a numerical value of the quality level, its linguistic description, as well as the degree of confidence of the expert in the resulting assessment.KeywordsEducational projectRiskFuzzy setTerm-setFuzzy production modelLinguistic variableRule baseMembership function