Education, Income, and Desired Fertility in Egypt: A Revised Perspective

Abstract

The authors focus on desired fertility and attempt to estimate how socioeconomic variables affect the demand for children among Egyptian couples. Cross-sectional data are used to examine how education and income affect couples desired family size. Data used are from the Egyptian Fertility Survey that was carried out from January-June 1980. The authors take explicit account of the objections raised by M. Neilove and others that there is more than 1 decision maker in each family. They estimate a simultaneous equation model in which both the husbands and wifes desired number of children is rated endogenously. Secondly the authors attempt to estimate in a developing country context the quality-quantity dichotomy emphasized by G. S. Becker D. N. De Tray R. T. Michael and others by introducing educational aspirations as an additional explanatory variable. Finally the authors recognize urban/rural differences and estimate models separately for lower and upper rural Egypt. some conclusions drawn from the data analysis follow. 1) Land ownership emerges as a significant variable in determining both husbands and wifes desired family size in all the rural regions. 2) Husbands education is significant in determining his desired family size and shows a negative effect in rural regions. In urban Egypt the wifes education is significant and negative related to the husbands desired family size. 3) The husbands/wifes knowledge of contraception proves to be the most important variable in determining his or her desired family size in all regions and shows the hypothesized negative effect. 4) Region of residence is significant in determining both husbands and wifes desired family size. Results show that in no case does the husbands preference have a significant effect on the wifes while everywhere but in rural Egypt the wifes preference has a significant effect on the husbands. Economic development as reflected by the couples education the educational aspirations for their daughters and wifes age at marriage affect family size preferences in such a way as to indicate that desired family size will decrease with development.