Education in the Year 2000: Possible and Preferable Futures

Abstract

What will be the nature of education in the United States at the turn of the century? The answer will depend, in part, upon the educational policy decisions made in the next twelve years and how these decisions interact with social, economic, and technological trends that are already in motion. We have developed and reanalyzed the probable results of some trends-in energy, environment, food, economy, governance, family structure, demographics, global relations, media, and technology-with respect to their impact on education, using a cross matrix analysis. A possible future emerged as a result of this process. The possible future gives us an idea of where we may be headed-but not where we want to go. What would it take to alter the troubling aspects of our possible future and introduce, within the next dozen years, the kinds of changes we envision for a preferable future? How do we get there from here? The disturbing answer, suggested by many futurists, is that some traumatic event or series of events would have to occur before such a profound change could happen. Our preferable future is based on this premise. Following are two scenarios that represent (1) a possible future based on a study of forces already in motion, and (2) a preferable future based on the result of some very traumatic events. Both take the point of view of an educator looking back into the previous twenty years (1981-2001). Both use some fictitious names and events to portray the way the future could unfold based on our research in development trend analyses.